When the EV revolution first became mainstream, you predicted it would take many decades longer than policy makers hoped, and original targets were unlikely to be met. Is that still your forecast? Jeremiah.
Yes. There are strong signs of a further slow-down in the process right now, with several manufacturers warning that their target dates for ceasing production of petrol and diesel cars are unlikely to be met, often in conjunction with partial lay-offs and shut downs. These are the symptoms of either technical speed bumps or less than fanatical market demand – probably both.
Exact numbers are not readily available, and what is published comes in piecemeal snippets. This week’s indicator was that one in every four cars being bought in the UK right now is electric.
That means 75 percent are not, and as the design life of a new car in the most affluent and largest markets is about 15 years, and many continue as mitumba hand-me-downs for another decade or more, don’t hold your breath.
There are well over one billion motor vehicles in the world today. To change them all, industry has to make that many EVs and that many fossil-fuel vehicles have to die, and a billion owners have got to be able to choose to, and afford to, make that happen.
The time will come, but not yet. In Kenya, hybrids (that have jockey petrol engines to charge their EV batteries, and can keep running on either or both) are likely to lead the trend.
