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Diaspora remittances increase by Sh22.6bn as US policy risks loom
The 1 percent tax taking effect in 2026 affects all individuals sending money abroad from the US, regardless of whether they are American citizens, green card holders, or visa holders.
Money sent home by Kenyans in the diaspora rose by Sh22.6 billion in the year to November, as a new one percent tax on US remittances taking effect in January 2026 casts uncertainty over future inflows from Kenya’s biggest source of foreign transfers.
Kenyans abroad sent $5,047 million (Sh650.2 billion), a 3.6 percent increase from $4,872 million (Sh627.6 billion) sent in the 12 months to November 2024, according to new data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK).
In November alone, remittance inflows totalled $388.3 million (Sh50 billion), an 8.3 percent year-on-year decrease from $423.2 million (Sh54.5 billion) in November 2024.
A federal excise tax on money remitted via cash, money orders and cashier's checks, together with September’s visa restrictions for migrant workers, could weigh on future inflows from the US, which accounts for over half of Kenya’s diaspora remittances.
November’s remittances were an 11.6 percent decrease from the $438.8 million (Sh56.6 billion) wired in October. The highest inflows Kenya has recorded this year so far were $440.1 million (Sh56.7 billion) in May.
“The 12-month cumulative inflows to November 2025 increased by 3.6 percent to $5,047 million compared to $4,872 million in a similar period in 2024,” CBK said in its weekly bulletin.
CBK data shows that as of September, Washington accounted for 54 percent of Nairobi’s total inflows in 2025, at $2 billion (Sh263.7 billion). It was followed by the UK (6.9 percent), Saudi Arabia (6.7 percent), and Australia (4.5 percent).
Regionally, Tanzania has been Kenya’s top remittance source in the nine months to September, accounting for $53.2 million (Sh6.8 billion). Kenyans in Uganda sent home $45.7 million (Sh5.9 billion) during this period, followed by those in South Africa at $12.8 million (Sh1.7 billion).
The 1 percent tax taking effect in 2026 affects all individuals sending money abroad from the US, regardless of whether they are American citizens, green card holders, or visa holders. It is part of US President Donald Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ that he signed into law on July 4.
Analysts fear that the policy will likely reduce the volume of money US-based Kenyans send home through formal channels such as banks and money transfer operators or discourage remittances altogether.
An estimated 182,000 Kenyans lived in the US as immigrants as of 2024, according to the Migration Policy Institute, a Washington-based think tank.
In September, Trump’s administration also shook up the H1B visa, which allows American employers to employ foreign nationals and immigrants, to limit opportunities for entry-level applicants in the US job market in favour of higher-paying jobs.
Employers have had to pay either the prevailing wage for a role or the actual wage for similar employees–whichever is higher. But under the new proposals, wages take on even greater importance, making the H-1B benefit high-salary roles in high-demand segments like AI research.
Fifty-two percent of these are college graduates, working across healthcare, technology, education, construction, logistics, and hospitality. Trump’s administration says the new rules aim to better protect US workers from unfair wage competition from foreign workers.
