Tourist numbers seen recovering in next three years

The Tourism Research Institute (TRI) estimates that it will be another three years before arrivals in Kenya rebound to the pre-Covid levels, pointing to a prolonged pain for sector players who have been the worst-hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic.

The institute said it expects international visitors to hit 2.2 million in 2024, slightly surpassing the 2.1 million visitors in 2019 when the industry had one of its best years.

Last year, the sector almost ground to a halt due to the international travel disruptions as countries locked down in a bid to control the spread of the coronavirus.

“We expect international arrival recovery in 2024 (at 2.2 million) from the 2019 figure of 2.1 million,” said the TRI in a report.

Arrivals from the US, which is Kenya’s top source market, are predicted to rise to 263,601 from 245,439 in 2019.

Arrivals from the United Kingdom are projected to go up by 13,430, China (6,171) and India (9,076).

This year’s recovery is, however, expected to be compromised by the current third wave of infections, which has brought a new round of restrictions both in Kenya and in European source markets.

This is a blow to airlines and hoteliers who have only just started to see a rebound in their business from the fourth quarter of 2020.

“Travellers will this year choose closer-to-home destinations.

“Domestic substitution will continue in 2021 as some international travel restrictions will remain in place for at least part of the year,” said the report.

Tourism sector players are banking on a successful vaccination programme to reopen international travel, but this is likely to take time due to limited vaccine stocks across the globe.