The year just ending saw a new Kenya Kwanza government virtually on the run with numerous ready-to launch socio-economic changes, many of which are quite transformational.
A smart political strategy, for indeed early reforms allow enough time for Kenyans to absorb some of the painful changes, heal and move on before the next elections. It also allows sufficient implementation time to deliver visible results.
Numerous ongoing money-supply reforms, however painful, are beginning to deliver increased revenues. These mirror the early 1990s IMF-driven reforms when a near bankrupt Kenya had to accept painful economic structural adjustments to access budgetary support credit from multilateral and bilateral donors.
However, I believe the three economic policy supremos (Treasury Cabinet Secretary, CBK Governor, and State House economic advisor) should urgently and jointly address the negative impacts of the runaway exchange rate, which is significantly increasing shilling cost of settling foreign debts, boosting imported inflation, while increasing costs of projects' development.
Yes, for a country that exceedingly imports more than we export, the free fall of the shilling value is directionally wiping out the benefits gained by the ongoing tax reforms.
The government has additionally gone for “low hanging” and impactful policy and development reforms and initiatives and these are opening up numerous quick socio-economic possibilities and opportunities.
Carefully balancing beneficial geopolitical partnerships, the Executive has gone out in the world to woo and sign-up investment and development partnerships, while aligning Kenya with global green momentum to tap climate funding and investments. Focused foreign trips are essential to deliver these outcomes and get Kenya into the global economic village.
The recently announced reforms at National Youth Service, if fairly and transparently implemented, will definitely prepare our youth for local and diaspora employability. Operationalisation of Open University and Konza Technopolis are potential quick wins for critical skills.
If sufficiently ringfenced against insecurity and vice, recently announced visa liberalisation can make Kenya a preferred tourism and conferencing destination with massive dollar inflows. All the above and many other quick-win initiatives can deliver effective results with minimum budgetary requirements.
In 2024 and beyond, budgetary and implementation focus should turn to increased production capacity in agriculture, livestock, fisheries, mining, industrialisation, and Turkana oil.
These productive sectors have the greatest capacity to create national wealth and strengthen balance of payment through exports and imports substitution. It is in production sectors that the largest capacity for jobs , and of course 2027 votes, is domiciled.
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Note: The results are not exact but very close to the actual.
