New world order: Africa, are you ready?

Is Africa ready for a new world order? This is a question that is preoccupying the minds of many global leaders. The headline of the Economist of March 19-25: “The Alternative World Order” which had headshots of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin captioned “Friendship between the two states has no limits.”

Clearly, in the eyes of the Western world, China and Russia are the antagonists in an emerging contest to create a new, less interdependent world order.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could be the “last straw that broke the camel's back.”

Michael O’Sullivan, a Princeton economist, in the 2019 book, The Levelling: What's Next After Globalization, imagined a new order that brings the end of globalisation. This, he said, will transition into global economics, finance, new power centres and institutions.

O’Sullivan saw the emergence of a multipolar world dominated by large regions — America, the European Union, a China-centric Asia and perhaps India. And their approach to economic policy, liberty, warfare, technology, and society will increasingly take divergent paths.

Interestingly, O’Sullivan thinks that mid-sized countries like Russia, Britain, Australia, and Japan will struggle to find their place in that world. And the new and smaller alliances, like those in the Scandinavia and the Baltics, with advanced governments, will arise.

However, he expresses concern about a future of low growth and excessive debt. He asks for a "global treaty on risk" that would limit central banks' use of quantitative easing to certain circumstances.

He submits that the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Organization, will appear increasingly obsolete.

While the Covid-19 pandemic confirmed some of O’Sullivan’s fears, the speed with which countries closed their borders was indicative of a world that is tired of its interconnectedness.

Disruption of supply chains, restricting export of essential goods, and later vaccine nationalism were a testimony that globalisation was coming to an end.

Then came the Russia/Ukraine conflict and the emerging questions like, is the war bringing another world order just as the previous wars did?

The protagonists, the Western world, indeed have the view that some totalitarian governments are up to something. The rhetoric over Ukraine is, get rid of Putin before he creates a new order.

Russian military actions in Bucha were unconscionable and will take many generations to forgive. It even makes it difficult to negotiate peace. The implication of that is that the war may not be over soon.

In my view, a new world order is inevitable and the repercussions for Africa could be severe.

To mitigate the ramifications of a new world order, the continent must unite under a single economic bloc. And African leaders must aspire to govern the continent in a way that can transform Africa.

This is well captured in Economic Development in Africa Report 2021 by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNTACD titled: Reaping the Potential Benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area for Inclusive Growth.

It states that the transformational ambition of the African Continental Free Trade Area requires that it be effectively implemented, whereby a level playing field is created for African businesses and workers.

This requires, for example, that producers and traders (large, medium-sized, and small firms) all have access to markets and productive resources. Workers need to acquire better skills to respond to evolving labour market demands.

As for the death of globalisation, there is little that Africa can cry about. African countries did not benefit from it as much as others, especially in Asia, did.

The few benefits included: higher incomes from the continent’s natural resources, knowledge transfer and ICTs that enabled some African countries to leapfrog and enabled inclusivity.

But Africa largely suffered as industrialisation began to decline, causing major unemployment and poverty.