Urgent action is needed to curb the increasing trend in emissions.
Africa stands to benefit from participating in the global transition to a low-carbon economy.
New estimates from the World Data Lab (WDL) indicate that 2024 will likely mark the highest recorded level of emissions to date. Projections suggest that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will reach almost 59 gigatonnes, equivalent to over 2,000 tonnes emitted every second.
Currently, the average GHG footprint of a global citizen stands at 7.4 tonnes annually, with 2.7 tonnes thereof coming from energy production, 1.8 tonnes from the industry sector, 1.5 tonnes from land-use change and agricultural production, a tonne from (mainly road) transportation, and 0.4 tonnes from heating and cooling dwellings.
The increasing rate of greenhouse gas emissions remains a pressing concern amid ongoing debates regarding environmental sustainability, ecosystem preservation, and raising air quality. To hold emitting nations and their governing bodies accountable for their actions, scientists at WDL have developed a measurement tool that tracks and projects GHG emissions on a sectoral level up until 2050 under three different scenarios, the World Emissions Clock. With it, there will be more accountability, transparency and clearer paths forward for countries worldwide.
Disparities in emissions and their sources exist among countries as do disparities in the expected effects of climate change and the induced inequalities.
For example, Africa, home to 18 percent of the world's population, contributes only six percent of global GHG emissions, indicating its comparatively low per capita carbon footprint.
Similarly, when considering the share on cumulative emissions since the pre-industrial era, which is causing current climate change, the continent accounts for roughly four percent of global emissions.
Yet, African countries are among the ones being most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, and resulting diseases (for example, malaria incidence). Consequently, Africa faces penalties for historical emissions from developed nations. From a fair-share perspective, the continent should receive support to adapt to climate change and mitigate its own emissions.
Africa possesses significant potential to leverage renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal power, which are abundant, clean, and cost-effective. By investing in these technologies, Africa can enhance energy access, reduce dependence on (often imported) fossil fuels, foster job creation, and stimulate economic growth while reducing environmental impacts.
Additionally, Africa stands to benefit from participating in the global transition to a low-carbon economy, tapping into emerging markets for green products and services like electric vehicles, biodegradable plastics, and carbon credits.
Urgent action is needed to curb the increasing trend in emissions. In 2040, the level of emissions that is required to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100 is approximately one-third of what is expected under business-as-usual, necessitating a drop in global per capita emissions to 2.5 tonnes.
However, there's skepticism regarding countries' ability to fulfill promises outlined in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), with data indicating that sub-Saharan Africa's emissions per capita stand at 3.6 tonnes, less than half the global average.
Some countries within the region, such as Kenya, demonstrate low emissions at 2.5 tonnes per capita, showcasing a model of middle-income, low-emitting countries. Kenya notably generates close to 90 percent of its electricity from renewable sources.
The energy-producing sector, and here first and foremost electricity generation, is crucial in the fight against climate change. Examples like Switzerland, with its clean energy production profile (0.5 tonnes per capita), contrast with high-emitting countries like Mongolia (11.9 tonnes per capita) and Australia (9.4 tonnes per capita), highlighting the potential for deliberate actions to reduce emissions in this sector.
Reliable and verifiable data on sectoral emissions are crucial, also to hold countries accountable to their pledges to reduce their carbon footprint under the Paris Agreement.
Without accurate and timely data, there's a risk of (deliberate) misreporting or underreporting emissions, undermining the urgency of reduction efforts. Data availability enables countries to identify best practices, strategies, and challenges in achieving their NDCs, promoting mutual learning and collaboration.
With global emissions reaching unprecedented levels, urgent action is imperative to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
The writer is Kenya’s Ambassador to Belgium, Mission to the European Union, Organization of African Caribbean and Pacific States and World Customs Organisation. Wolfgang Fengler is the CEO at World Data Lab. The article is written at a personal level.
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