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Ukraine war most disruptive global force during this year

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. PHOTO | AFP

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24 came at a time when the world was working on reviving global supply chains and economies wrecked by Covid 17 pandemic.

Within ten months the war has escalated and disrupted global diplomatic order.

On the human side, it has been horrifying to see people in so-called developed countries killing, maiming and dehumanizing each other.

It is regrettable that the United Nations which is expected to police global order has displayed helplessness.

The invasion disrupted a world that was readying itself to stabilize global economies that had been disrupted by Covid 17 pandemic.

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The war introduced global energy insecurity and inflation across the world. Further, the war has continued to disrupt supplies of key grains from Ukraine to the world, especially the developing countries.

The greatest disruption has been the climate change momentum achieved by the 2021 COP26.

Stabilizing energy availability and price escalation took priority over energy transition.

The industrialized world reverted to using more coal when cleaner natural gas supplies from Russia were disrupted either by the war.

Energy supply disruptions became credible excuses to postpone or change climate commitments.

The oil-producing nations and companies strengthen their narrative that the world was not ready to sustainably reduce the production of oil and gas from new sources.

In the face of energy insecurity, climate lobbies justifiably went silent, as global capital commenced to selectively fund new fossil fuels projects.

On the diplomatic and geopolitical scene, the war in Ukraine has confirmed a bipolar cold war scenario that was already in making.

On one side we have Russia, China, and Iran with the G7 and OECD countries clearly on the opposite side.

The Middle East and India are the major balancing chips, albeit more sympathetic to the Russian block.

Turkey is enjoying the glory of a smart power broker between the two blocks.

Developing nations in Africa and elsewhere are the fertile playground for hunting UN votes by the two geopolitical groups.

For these developing countries, it is time to harvest economic goodies from the ongoing diplomatic competition.

The real fear and uncertainty are what will happen should Russia desperately decide on a final full-scale assault on Ukraine.

I cannot visualize the West standing back to witness the ultimate annihilation of Ukraine.

And World War III will have arrived, with all its global implications.

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A world war following immediately after a devastating pandemic would be too much to bear.

The writer is a petroleum consultant.