The chances of the adverse weather phenomenon occurring later in the year have risen above 50 per cent, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.
Already, several parts of Kenya are experiencing heavy flooding with the onset of the rainy season at the end of last month.
The El Niño phenomenon happens when sea surface temperatures rise in the equatorial Pacific Ocean off the Peruvian Coast.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued an El Niño alert, warning that the chances of the adverse weather phenomenon occurring later in the year have risen above 50 per cent.
El Niño is often characterised by heavy rains and flooding and it could have a devastating effect in large swathes of the country recently ravaged by a drought that lasted more than six months.
Already, several parts of Kenya are experiencing heavy flooding with the onset of the rainy season at the end of last month.
The WMO, the umbrella body for all meteorological departments in the world, says there is a 50-60 per cent chance of El Niño occurring following the recent recording of a rise in the sea surface temperatures.
The El Niño phenomenon happens when sea surface temperatures rise in the equatorial Pacific Ocean off the Peruvian Coast.
Already, the area warmed by two degrees celsius between March and February this year, causing very heavy rains and strong winds in South America.
Whether El Niño causes heavy rainfall, however, depends on the location of a country and its proximity to the Equator.
Kenya straddles the Equator, meaning that El Niño will always bring rain to the East African nation, whose intensity depends on the strength of the El Niño signal.
The Kenya Meteorological Department, however, said it was still far too early in the year to talk about an El Niño.
“We will only be able to provide a complete picture in August, when we do the forecast for the October-November-December short rains season,” said Peter Ambenje, the acting director at the Kenya Meteorological Department.
The world last came under the El Niño phenomenon in 2015/16 that was billed as the second strongest since the 1997 cycle.
In other parts of the world, though, the 2015/16 cycle was recorded as the strongest El Niño in the last 50 years.
The strength of an El Niño is measured by calculating the average increases in surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean off the Peruvian Coast and its deviation from the normal temperature.
An increase of 0.5 degrees indicates an El Niño event, and the higher the temperature goes above normal, the stronger the El Niño.
“Memories are still fresh of the powerful 2015-2016 El Niño, which was associated with droughts, flooding and coral bleaching in different parts of the world,” said Maxx Dilley, who heads the Climate Prediction and Adaptation Division of the WMO, in a statement posted on the WMO’s website.
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