Monthly data on mobile-money transactions, electricity, and vehicle production reflect Kenya’s economic output more accurately, a team of researchers at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.
The researchers observed that tracking Kenya’s near-term economic activity is presently problematic, partly due to the delay in GDP growth releases, which are typically published with intervals of at least one quarter.
“Although Kenya has been publishing quarterly GDP since 2009, which underscores the relatively high quality of its macroeconomic data among LICs (low-income countries), the reporting delay typically exceeds three months after the end of the quarter,” the researchers at the IMF said in a working paper.
“This complicates the design and timely implementation of conjunctural macroeconomic policies.”
The researchers said that their test forecasts based on data releases on digital money, vehicle production, electricity, and imports and exports presented better results on Kenya’s GDP performance.
The researchers noted that their model offers a practical way to continuously update near-term GDP growth predictions as new macroeconomic data become available.
“Thus, it informs timely stabilisation policies and helps calibrate development policies with sound data-driven insights. It also elicits how the incoming information flow shapes nowcast updates, by decomposing each data release into a predictable part and a news component,” the researchers said.
“We find that both quarterly and annual GDP predictions from our nowcasting framework perform well out-of-sample compared to alternative forecasts by the CBK (Central Bank of Kenya) and the IMF. Our estimation results also suggest that the news from data releases on electricity and vehicle production, digital money, exports, and imports of goods are key factors that have affected GDP nowcast updates since 2024.”
The IMF has been providing technical support to the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) to upgrade its platforms and enhance the real-time estimation of GDP and inflation. The working papers by IMF researchers don’t not reflect the position of the fund but are meant to elicit debate on topical economic issues.
Mobile money data has been deemed a timely indicator of Kenya’s economic performance, with data published within three weeks of each month for the preceding monthly cycle.
Upward trend
The reach of digital payment systems has enhanced financial services in the country by expanding financial services.
The number of active mobile money agents and registered mobile money accounts nearly doubled over the past five years, reaching 424,404 and 85.62 million by May 2025, as per CBK data.
The recorded number of mobile-money transactions also increased to 214.5 million, rising by nearly 60 percent during the same five-year review period.
The value of mobile money transactions (total agent cash in, cash out) followed a similar upward trend until the end of 2024 but softened in the first half of 2025.
The value of the transactions dropped by 21.8 percent to Sh636.2 billion over 12 months to 2025, even as usage increased, pointing to a shift towards low-value payments and a retreat in large-scale use, reflecting higher living costs and slowing household spending.
The IMF research, nonetheless, pointed out that Kenya stands out among LICs for the relatively high quality of its macroeconomic statistics, having published quarterly GDP since 2009.
“However, the publication delay remains substantial: GDP is released more than three months after the end of the quarter, hindering the implementation of timely stabilisation measures and the design of growth-friendly development policies,” the researchers said.
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