Even before he is sworn in as US President, Trump has already hinted at his target policies and action priorities.
Economic growth, low inflation, jobs, energy security and affordability, oil and gas, and protection of US investments are expected to be Trump’s priority areas, in the context of US geopolitical and economic strengths.
Support and funding for global climate agenda will definitely diminish, unless such agenda translates into economic gain for the US. Trump calls this “commonsense” approach.
And US major businesses, investors and financiers appear comfortably aligned with Trump’s line of thinking, which is well reflected in his nominated appointees.
Development and use of indigenous US oil and gas are expected to be prioritised over renewable energy technologies. Specifically, Trump appears to have an aversion for wind power but inclined to support revival of nuclear energy.
In respect of oil and gas , he is expected to relax environmental moratoriums imposed on offshore oil and gas drilling by President Joe Biden.
It is also quite likely that the incoming President will roll back some aspects of Biden’s legacy Inflation Reduction Act, especially those not aligned to his policies.
And this may include reversal of planned loans and subsidies that support renewable energy capacity expansion. However, Elon Musk may intervene to deliver favourable electric vehicle programmes.
Trump is expected to focus on search and development of critical minerals supply chains in the US and in friendly countries, with the intention of reducing Chinese stranglehold on these minerals.
His declared intentions to “take over” Greenland may be national security, but he is most likely driven by vast deposits of minerals in the territory, including oil and gas deposits.
Critical minerals are crucial for renewable energy, ICT and military technologies. Going forward, the Trump factor is expected to slow down global energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
China is currently the dominant driver of renewable technologies, which are now expected to fight it out with a resurgent and more confident oil and gas business.
Trump is widely expected to impose tariffs to reduce imports of Chinese electric vehicles, solar and wind equipment and technologies.
What does Trump’s “commonsense” focus mean to Kenya? Trump is a very transactional person, and there must be something in it for him to deal with Kenya.
Climate finance, carbon credits and similar green jargon will not mean much in Trump’s USA.
Could be Kenya can start looking at other opportunities like mining of critical minerals.
Also, in a Trump fossil-fuel friendly era it is “commonsense” for Kenya to prioritise Turkana oil development, and even Kitui coal.