An opportunity exists to ponder and rework Kenya’s energy policies and strategies to align with changing technologies, climate change prioritization, investment capital attraction, and Kenya’s medium- and long-term economic landscape.
Energy (both power and petroleum ) are critical socioeconomic inputs whose costs and access impact sector GDP performance and economic competitiveness.
For these reasons, Kenya needs an updated energy demand study to correctly project realistic future energy requirements commensurate with realistic economic plans for various sectors (agriculture, industries, transportation, institutions etc.).
For completeness and effectiveness, national energy demand projections should be a joint task between economic planners and energy economists.
And should be done jointly for both electricity and petroleum, so as to correctly consider the energy transition from the use of petroleum to renewable electricity, especially in transport electrification (EVs and railway) of which an implementation plan should be jointly developed and stewarded by ministries of Energy/Petroleum and Transportation.
Of necessity, this implies reduced petroleum infrastructure investments and increased electrification capacity investments.
Electricity supply projections should be by type of source with a strong emphasis on renewable sources (geothermal, hydro, solar, wind etc.) as per environmental policies, while correctly balancing grid baseload and intermittent supplies.
Key considerations should be the lowest final delivered tariffs and investor capital availability.
As much as possible imported power should be avoided so as to conserve forex while strategically safeguarding the security of supply from regional political volatility.
For objectivity, electricity supply capacity determination should be an independent exercise, not by existing power supply agencies which may harbour institutional vested interests.
In respect of Kitui coal and Turkana oil resources, early policy decisions are required.
Until renewable technologies for industrial heating in heavy industries (cement, steel etc.) have evolved sufficiently, there will be demand for fossil fuels (coal, and fuel oil ) which are currently imported.
Kitui coal deposits should be developed to cut out imported coal. It may sound comical, but it makes economic and technical sense to use Turkana crude oil for industrial heating.
This is if early opportunities for exporting crude oil are not forthcoming. Indeed, existing thermal power plants can burn crude oil instead of imported fuel oil.
An updated energy supply and demand blueprint prepared on basis of sustainable climate goals is a document that global financiers and investors are waiting for to advise green funding in Kenya.
Cabinet Secretary Davis Chirchir is not new to energy opportunities and issues having been the Minister for energy in 2013/15, which is a strong advantage.
The writer is a petroleum consultant.
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